It’s not looking great for federally funded space travel in the next decade, according to a report by an independent safety panel.
The Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, a group of nine engineers and safety experts who review NASA programs that have the “most significant potential” to affect the safety of astronauts, contractors and other agency personnel, threw out the idea of extending the space shuttle era (scheduled for retirement in 2010) but expressed little hope of accelerating its replacement before 2015.
The news follows a report released last week by the Congressional Budget Office that estimated NASA needs either more time or money to return astronauts to the moon by 2020 via its planned Constellation program.
“Continuing to fly the Shuttle not only would increase the risk to crews, but also could jeopardize the future U.S. exploration program by squeezing available resources (and, in the worst case, support) for the Constellation program,” reported the panel.
The panel also expressed serious concerns about the risks involved in keeping the shuttle program alive.
“Relatively high levels of inherent risk reside in the Shuttle design, and these risks rise as more flights are attempted,” wrote the panel.
Panel members also suggested that because NASA hasn’t built a system to land astronauts on the moon in several years, simply throwing more money towards the Constellation project won’t necessarily help because too many key staffers remain working on shuttle-related projects.
That said, the panel agrees that money remains an issue.
“If NASA’s funding was maintained at $19.1 billion annually and the agency realized cost growth in its programs consistent with the average for 72 of its past programs, its planned schedules for spaceflight programs would be delayed,” said the panel. “In particular, the initial operating capability for Ares 1 and Orion would be pushed to late 2016, the return of humans to the moon would slip to 2023, and 15 of 79 science missions would be delayed beyond 2025.”
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